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This page was UPDATED at Jan 1 2001
Trying to FOLLOW THAT BET!(or maybe not)Introduction: Paul, my eastern friend, asked me about the selection rules "Bet the Last outcome", "The one Before Last" and their reversed versions. How would they perform over the long haul with continous spins? I guess many wonder the same so I made the test for all of you. But before that, let's have some theory... To bet the Last outcome is to follow an immediate trend - you bet that the last outcome will repeat immediately. The advantage of this rule is that it "adopts" very quickly to a new sequence (of your preferred selections) - the longer the sequence is the more hits you will get. The dis-advantage is that it cannot "adopt" at all to a sequence like R-B-R-B-R-B. This is a zero-hit sequence for this rule. The Reversed Last means just that; you bet that the last outcome will NOT repeat, thus betting the opposite. The advantage is its excellent handling of sequences like R-B-R-B-R-B but the dis-advantage is that it can ONLY handle that. As soon as you have repeating outcomes it will lose. You can also bet the one Before Last. This means that you in a case of a Red - Black situation bet Red at the next spin as Red was before Black - the last outcome. Here, the advantage is that it too, like Reversed Last, handles R-B-R-B-R-B with a hit on every spin. But that's all, as the dis-advantage is that a sequence like R-R-B-B-R-R-B-B will be completely missed because it needs the two spins to "adopt" to the sequence and then it changes. It will, though, hit better the longer the sequence is. The fourth method is the Reversed Before Last, where you bet the opposite of the Before Last. The advantage with this method is that it handles R-R-B-B-R-R-B-B but the dis-advantage is that it completely misses R-B-R-B-R-B. It is, really, the revesed of the Before Last. Now you know the advantages and dis-advantages of all of them. No single one will ever win, it seems, as they all hit different to eachother. To compare, I also bet alternating bets, like Red-Black-Red-Black... at the same spins where the systems were used. As the Last (and Reversed Last) system doesn't start at the same spin after a zero as the Before Last (and its reversed version), two different results were found. To be as complete as possible, I also counted every sequence of hits and filed them by length. The resulting four tables (one for each system - the alternating bets were not checked) are also found below. UPDATE: After publishing, Paul asked me why the "normal" result is not exactly the opposite of the "reversed" result. It took me some time to figure out how to explain - you can read my answer by clicking here (separate browser). Paul also wondered what the results would be if all zeroes were deleted before the test, so I ran the same test again ignoring all zeroes. The tables are published at a separate page, click here to read! (Please remember that these figures reflect only the files used) TRYING TO FOLLOW THAT BET...
Copyright © 2000 by XerxX
Number of continous SPINS: 362,021
Number of ZEROS: 9,731
Number of BETS: 352,288
(All betting started at the THIRD spin in order to let BL and RBL complete the recording)
HIT TABLE Red/Black Low/High Even/Odd Total Hit%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bet: LAST 171,353 171,677 171,240 514,270 48.660
REVERSED LAST 171,465 171,141 171,578 514,184 48.652
ALTERNATE while L/RL 171,336 171,576 171,285 514,197 48.653
BEFORE LAST 171,243 171,431 171,601 514,275 48.660
REVERSED BEFORE LAST 171,597 171,409 171,239 514,245 48.658
ALTERNATE while BL/RBL 171,347 171,567 171,204 514,118 48.646
SEQUENCES TABLES
These tables show the total number of hit-sequences of
each length that occurred while running the above test.
Betting LAST
Lth Rd/Bk Lw/Hh En/Od
---------------------------
1 45236 45090 45210
2 22029 21884 21915
3 10787 10801 10705
4 5100 5187 5166
5 2587 2619 2576
6 1179 1214 1208
7 579 584 595
8 298 284 302
9 147 154 134
10 69 73 70
11 36 23 25
12 20 19 19
13 3 12 9
14 7 7 5
15 2 2 4
16 1 3 0
17 0 0 1
18 0 0 1
20 1 0 1
Betting REVERSED LAST
Lth Rd/Bk Lw/Hh En/Od
---------------------------
1 45221 45373 45053
2 21982 21842 21805
3 10748 10712 10962
4 5281 5094 5248
5 2508 2582 2522
6 1225 1236 1203
7 582 592 577
8 317 273 310
9 132 148 145
10 52 56 75
11 28 49 28
12 17 20 15
13 8 8 8
14 4 3 2
15 1 1 1
16 1 3 0
17 0 1 0
20 0 1 0
Betting BEFORE LAST
Lth Rd/Bk Lw/Hh En/Od
---------------------------
1 48625 48288 48404
2 21535 21514 21667
3 10381 10281 10414
4 5095 5201 5098
5 2404 2450 2411
6 1161 1176 1172
7 615 557 612
8 279 302 279
9 121 129 145
10 64 72 53
11 37 39 34
12 11 20 17
13 11 10 7
14 3 3 5
15 2 6 0
16 0 1 1
17 0 0 1
19 1 1 1
Betting REVERSED BEFORE LAST
Lth Rd/Bk Lw/Hh En/Od
---------------------------
1 48604 48490 48502
2 21475 21235 21457
3 10331 10408 10479
4 5061 5109 4986
5 2526 2520 2453
6 1194 1243 1142
7 581 572 586
8 283 276 291
9 131 141 147
10 60 64 81
11 28 24 38
12 29 12 15
13 7 7 3
14 4 2 2
15 2 3 2
16 2 0 4
17 0 1 0
18 2 0 0
19 0 1 0
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